July 29, 2010
Republicans Are Anti-Business
Karl Rove, Bush’s consigliere, has employed some rather brilliant (until the hubris and The Math took him down) strategies over the years, one of those being Attack Your Opponent Strengths strategy. Just look at what happened to John Kerry’s war record in 2004 – they turned a war hero into a coward, and what was left was just a flip-flopping blue blooded privileged New Englander – just the kind of opponent Republicans wanted.
Whenever I hear Republicans calling Democrats unpatriotic it has the same rovian flavor to it. Republicans own patriotism, Jesus and the flag. They also own pro-business image. For now.
Trickle Down Economics
Here’s a gem from Stephen Colbert. This is how trickle down economics works.
July 25, 2010
American South
Traveling to the American South has long been something I wanted to do. My fascination with South is akin to my fascination with big hairy spiders and mega-tsunamis. It’s a voyeur sport. I’d rather be a spectator than a participant. I know all there’s to know about those two, I’ve watch all the National Geographic and Discovery channel documentaries. I like the chill running down my spine when seeing a picture of a thick, rusty-colored leg of a spider hiding behind an object, because my mind draws picture of the horror creature that can posses such a leg. I remember seeing one of those in the Amazon jungle leisurely making her way out of the hole in the ground – one set of thick legs at a time – followed by Rubenesque torso, generously covered with reddish hair. I was mortified but couldn’t take my eyes off her. With the mega-tsunamis – it’s simple awe. The size and the inevitability of it, because when it comes you can’t run and hide, the best you can do is marvel at such nature’s beauty before it consumes you. In all of the recent disaster movies I tend to watch the part with the wave, over and over. It is both alluring and repelling. Alluring and repelling: South is like that spider hidden in the hole – I want to see it, but all the signs show it’s not going to be pretty and that instigates my curiosity even more.
I confess that my image of the South is perhaps superficial and stereotypical – poor, incestuous, uneducated, bigoted while at the same time courteous, polite and charming. That’s why I have to go and see it for myself and hope for more of the latter.
The image of the South in my mind is reinforced by numerous horror movies with the same plot: a group of teenagers gets lost in a hillbilly country (usually it’s Texas or West Virginia), get terrorized by the weirdo locals and the only ones to survive are those who didn’t have sex at the beginning of the movie. Message: Don’t come near us and if you do happen to pass by – there’s no fucking allowed. That’s why, in order to avoid asking locals for directions, I stocked up on local maps. Or how about that original hillbilly horror movie Deliverance from the 1970s? Remember? “Squeal like a pig!” That scene gives me shivers. It also made me realize why people in the rural states insist on carrying guns – to protect themselves from those inbreds in the woods, and not to fight some imaginary Commies.
And then the music, although it’s a topic for a separate post. Not contemporary country music – which I don’t like, but Southern rock like occasional CCR or Lynyrd Skynyrd on the radio – my guilty pleasures. Although I do appreciate some bluegrass influence in my favorite British bands like Led Zeppelin (i.e Gallows Pole) and Dire Straits (see my post about Mark Knopfler).
Let’s call of the above my “preconceived notions” about South. Anyway, trip to the South is something I wanted to get out of the system for a long time. My trip will start in Nashville and from there I will be making my way through Alabama down to the Gulf, then some poker in Biloxi and will end up in New Orleans.
In the meantime I’m practicing to keep my mouth shut, or at least not to give any political statements. Perhaps, I’ll marginally pass for a Southern belle this way. Any advice on manners and language is welcome!
And this is just to give you an idea of where I’m going.
July 19, 2010
Some predictions for the near and not so near future
When you pay premiums for your insurance and if and when the time comes for you to get the benefits, imagine how pissed off you would be if, instead of getting the benefits, you would receive a lecture from your insurance company on the evil of handouts, generously peppered with folksy “American entrepreneurial spirit/pull yourself by your shoelaces” stories. That policyholder is the American unemployed and that insurance company is nowadays Republicans. Nowadays, because Republicans had no problem approving unemployment insurance for those lazy bastards when Bush was in office.
The public, notoriously attentive to details and known for their long attention span, will be able to see through the spin, of course, and reward Obama at the expense of the GOP. But not the way you think. Here’s how. This year, the Republicans will take the House, yes, that is my prediction. They will do so because Obama is in office and things are still pretty bad economically. Of course, when the GOP takes over the House they’ll show us, Commies, how things need to be done! Frankly, I can’t wait. Market loves gridlock in Congress, because this way no harm is coming the Wall Street way (apart from the freshly passed Financial Regulation Bill that has already been priced in). In anticipation of Republican takeover this fall the market will rally (that is my second prediction). For the next 2 years the GOP will demonstrate their problem solving skills with breakthrough and revolutionary ideas of tax cuts and less regulation. We will hear a lot of talking heads and read a lot of editorials about a repeat of 1994 GOP takeover of Congress with no mention of what happened in 1996. Which leads me to believe that Obama actually wants GOP to win this fall, so as to win against them in 2012. It’s a win-win situation for him. In 2 years, even if there’s no gridlock in Congress, the recession will be over through a natural cycle and what would stop him from claiming a well-deserved credit?
Oh, here’s Obama with balls. I’m considering it as one of my new blog avatars.
Das Pederastische Octopus
I know, I know, off topic again. I just couldn’t pass it by without sharing. It’s freaking hilarious. Looks like octopus Paul has a long history or predictions.
July 7, 2010
Poker and Politics
My brain, already quite meager to begin with, is totally melting in this heat for the last few days, forbidding me to deliver you a new portion of my rabid opinion. As of this moment I’m seriously concerned for the life of the prophetic octopus in Germany. I’m afraid it goes well with the beer.
As I sat at the poker table in AC the other day and observed the action, I got reaffirmed in how much poker is like politics and vice versa. For example, there are many ways to win the pot – some of them opportunistic and some long-term strategic. Opportunistic is when you’re in the pot with weak hand and you sense weakness in others as well and you go ahead and steal it. The key here is not to think for too long and just do it. More often than not you will not get called, out of sheer momentum, and that’s all you need. The strategic way is much less fun than the opportunistic and it involves boring stuff like counting the odds and folding too many hands. Democrats have lost the momentum some time ago and, despite occasional opportunities presented by loose-lipped Republicans, they now have to resort to just grinding away at a slow pace. But even here they manage to miss a few pots. For example, the cost of pushing through the extension of unemployment insurance would be roughly $25bn addition to a $14 trillion debt which is much less than half a percent. The cost of NOT pushing this bill will most likely result in Republican takeover of the House and the Senate. To put it in a poker terms, if you already put $1400 in the pot you’d be a fool not to call another $25, even if you have 2-7 offsuit, because if you lose – you lose only $25, but if you win you might win big. Republicans blocked the extension on budget concerns, at least that’s the official line, but I’m positive it has something to do with the upcoming elections and they want people to suffer for some more so that they are ripe for the taking this November. At this point I don’t quite understand why Obama and Democrats don’t talk about it every day, why do they allow Republicans to take the initiative and portray the situation as “killing an ant with a nuke” and to beat themselves in the chest proclaiming newfound concern for the budget. Moreover, the “borrow and spend” was an ok way to finance various conservative causes under Bush, and it was presented as responsible governing vs. the liberals’ “tax and spend” ways.
Another big ominous sign for Democrats from the poker table: At one point I was playing with a bunch of colorful New Jersey union employees at the table, you know, the Teamsters, gold chains and all, talking non-stop about economy and thrashing Obama. Well, they also talked about how long it is until retirement and what to do to squeeze maximum benefits upon retirement, but nonetheless, I’m sure Democrats are not getting votes from these guys this fall. From the Teamsters, for Christ sake! I wasn’t sure they were aware that if it was up to Republicans they would see none of the benefits and would be paid $7 an hour, but who cares about the facts these days. What are Democrats smoking? Where’s the PR, where’s the offensive, where’s Chicago-style shakedown? Or do they want to lose this November so that they could pull “a Clinton” circa 1996 in 2012?
Anyway, the Teamsters were entertaining in many ways, especially in the way they played. One of them declared that he “wanted to be closer to the fish” before changing seats to a seat next to mine. I just joined the table and I don’t think I played a single hand yet, but I went out of my way to look like a freshly cut piece of toro. He proceeded to lose all his stack, not to me unfortunately. But this episode made me come up with an amendment to an old poker adage “If you don’t see a fish at the table, then you are one”: The human mind works in such a way that it’ll always find a fish at the table.
