Poker and Politics

My brain, already quite meager to begin with, is totally melting in this heat for the last few days, forbidding me to deliver you a new portion of my rabid opinion. As of this moment I’m seriously concerned for the life of the prophetic octopus in Germany. I’m afraid it goes well with the beer.

As I sat at the poker table in AC the other day and observed the action, I got reaffirmed in how much poker is like politics and vice versa. For example, there are many ways to win the pot – some of them opportunistic and some long-term strategic. Opportunistic is when you’re in the pot with weak hand and you sense weakness in others as well and you go ahead and steal it. The key here is not to think for too long and just do it. More often than not you will not get called, out of sheer momentum, and that’s all you need. The strategic way is much less fun than the opportunistic and it involves boring stuff like counting the odds and folding too many hands. Democrats have lost the momentum some time ago and, despite occasional opportunities presented by loose-lipped Republicans, they now have to resort to just grinding away at a slow pace. But even here they manage to miss a few pots. For example, the cost of pushing through the extension of unemployment insurance would be roughly $25bn addition to a $14 trillion debt which is much less than half a percent. The cost of NOT pushing this bill will most likely result in Republican takeover of the House and the Senate. To put it in a poker terms, if you already put $1400 in the pot you’d be a fool not to call another $25, even if you have 2-7 offsuit, because if you lose – you lose only $25, but if you win you might win big. Republicans blocked the extension on budget concerns, at least that’s the official line, but I’m positive it has something to do with the upcoming elections and they want people to suffer for some more so that they are ripe for the taking this November. At this point I don’t quite understand why Obama and Democrats don’t talk about it every day, why do they allow Republicans to take the initiative and portray the situation as “killing an ant with a nuke” and to beat themselves in the chest proclaiming newfound concern for the budget. Moreover, the “borrow and spend” was an ok way to finance various conservative causes under Bush, and it was presented as responsible governing vs. the liberals’ “tax and spend” ways.

Another big ominous sign for Democrats from the poker table: At one point I was playing with a bunch of colorful New Jersey union employees at the table, you know, the Teamsters, gold chains and all, talking non-stop about economy and thrashing Obama. Well, they also talked about how long it is until retirement and what to do to squeeze maximum benefits upon retirement, but nonetheless, I’m sure Democrats are not getting votes from these guys this fall. From the Teamsters, for Christ sake! I wasn’t sure they were aware that if it was up to Republicans they would see none of the benefits and would be paid $7 an hour, but who cares about the facts these days. What are Democrats smoking? Where’s the PR, where’s the offensive, where’s Chicago-style shakedown? Or do they want to lose this November so that they could pull “a Clinton” circa 1996 in 2012?

Anyway, the Teamsters were entertaining in many ways, especially in the way they played. One of them declared that he “wanted to be closer to the fish” before changing seats to a seat next to mine. I just joined the table and I don’t think I played a single hand yet, but I went out of my way to look like a freshly cut piece of toro. He proceeded to lose all his stack, not to me unfortunately. But this episode made me come up with an amendment to an old poker adage “If you don’t see a fish at the table, then you are one”: The human mind works in such a way that it’ll always find a fish at the table.

Corporations are more equal than people

Imagine a radical idea of a Supreme Court acting as a check on markets to protect individual liberty as opposed to a check on government to protect markets. That is what Noah Feldman explores in this thought provoking article
Imagining a Liberal Court

Conservatives are usually upset when liberals discover rights where they see none. Nonetheless, conservatives have accomplished a judicial feat over the last half of the century to discover rights of corporations on par with the rights of individuals and make it into a commonly accepted axiom.

Long post under the cut:

Continue reading →

Again About Soccer

Sorry, I’m obsessed with world cup for the last few days. Since US lost to Ghana, I rooted for England today. I think I should start rooting for the opposite teams from now on. Ze Germans played very solid game, and that goal that wasn’t counted for England wouldn’t have made much difference. But the ball was inside the net and the referee should have cleaned his glasses nevertheless.

This win for Germany can be considered a revenge for the 1966 World Cup match between them England, when England’s scored the goal that wasn’t.

Obama Condoms

Look what I found today near Times Square.

I thought it was kinda cool. They also have a website:Obama Condoms

I, unfortunately, have nothing to do with this good business.
A tagline on the “The Ultimate Stimulus Package” piece: “Our most obvious play of words yet, “The Ultimate Stimulus Package” is meant to call attention to the severity of our economic state. Many Americans think that the Stimulus Package is full of holes. However, ours is not. It is intended to get the general public laid, not laid off, and to use comedy to stimulate political awareness and conversation.”

Yes we can!

Well, I think I know what team I’m going to root for now in World Cup. I like underdogs, especially those whose legitimate goals are not being counted. That’s why this win feels so much better. Give’em hell, you crazy old Yanks!
Go USA!

Obama Derangement Syndrom

Well, I don’t know what to say about yesterday’s comments of Texas Rep. Joe Barton other than that we have witnessed a prime example of Obama Derangement Syndrom. Here’s what he said to BP CEO Tony Hayward, a person who assumed full responsibility for the spill and voluntarily agreed to the $20bn clean up fund, at the hearings yesterday:

I’m ashamed of what happened in the White House yesterday,” the Texan said of BP’s offer, under pressure from President Obama, to set aside $20 billion to pay damages to Gulf Coast residents ruined by the oil spill. “I think it is a tragedy of the first proportion that a private corporation can be subjected to what I would characterize as a shakedown.

Oh! I wish I could follow the mental contortions he had to go through to justify this apology! It reminded me of a similar episode, in Republican circles of course, a few years ago. Remember when Dick Cheney shot a guy during the hunt and had THAT guy apologize to HIM for standing in the way. “Sorry, Dear Leader, it was my fault your didn’t see me”.
I always wondered about the way a Republican mind works. And that is an enigma I want to understand, if only out of curiosity. Perhaps Joe Barton, being from Texas, thought he will come across as a lone speaker of the truth and will achieve a celebrity status, like that congressman that shouted “You lie!” at Obama during the State of the Union. However, he miscalculated with the occasion. It may be fashionable to be a contrarian, but not when a TV screen is split between a live picture of a still gushing well, a contrite BP CEO and you complaining about the Obama clean up tactics. What times!

Republicans for Regulation

It turns out Republicans don’t favor free markets at all. Only they could come up with a legislation like this one.
On Strategic Default

Basically, they are trying to punish borrowers who, while being deeply underwater, are defaulting strategically – that is stop paying mortgage while staying in the house and spend money on other things. Things like going out to the restaurants, shopping, investing money in their small businesses, etc. You know, the normal things that help the economy rebound and keep the Republicans happy. I must also add and this is important – that while doing it, home borrowers are not actually breaking any contractual obligations. Default is an option. It’s the ultimate free market at work, just like the founding fathers have prescribed. But Republicans are not happy.
Frankly, it’s hard for me to guess why they are upset, because here we have people making rational economic decisions, which leaves me with only one option – they are upset with immoral behavior. Which they in turn seek to legislate. I can not put it better that this University of Arizona law professor.

I wonder if Congress might consider a similar measure mandating that any corporation or bank that strategically defaults on a contractual obligation is not entitled to any tax breaks or other government assistance, including any future financial bailout. The point is, of course, that business and banks strategically default all the time when it is in their economic interest to do so.

Why no similar move by the House to punish strategic default by banks and corporations? It is interesting that House Republicans are generally opposed to most regulation of corporate activities—preferring to leave the market to self-regulate—but have acted with House Democrats to regulate the economic activities of average Americans. This is yet another example of the double standard in America—one set of rules for Wall Street and another for Main Street—but this time the House is actually codifying this double standard.

Unfortunately, this kind of moralistic grandstanding by the House does nothing to help the millions of struggling underwater homeowners who have seen their retirement security disappear. Instead, it worsens the impact of the best bad choice they have to save themselves from financial ruin, which is to strategically default and let the banks have their homes—which, by the way, is a perfectly legitimate option under the terms of the mortgage contract.

The Left customarily criticizes conservatives for being too beholden to raw capitalism to the detriment of society as a whole. They are approaching it from the wrong end. They should criticize the self-proclaimed “capitalists” for not being capitalist enough. Because, (and it’s becoming a tired adage) it’s socialism for corporations and capitalism for the little guy.
However, it feels like Republicans didn’t just do it on their own accord. It does feel like it has an imprint of an invisible hand of Wall Street. The whole situation has a flavor of a strong player at the poker table losing a big pot to some schmuck who doesn’t know how to play and instead of saying ‘nice hand’ and moving on, he’s calling for a floor manager. Think about it – the big wigs on Wall Street got beaten in their own game and by who! To put it simply the scammers were being scammed, and they didn’t like it. The other team played dirty for once and won. But I thought it was understood among the players that it’s part of the business, a so-called leakage. That’s why I am very surprised to find moralists on Wall Street – out of all places, for Christ sake! Now I’m truly expecting the next logical move by Republicans – putting equal penalties for default on corporations.

Almost by O.Henry (Off topic)

Nothing is new under the Sun.  Seeing a headline like this:  Homeless man smashes window to get arrested the first thing that immediately came to my mind was a short O. Henry story about a homeless man who was trying to do the same. Both of these men, the fictitious and the real one, even resorted to the same tactics at some point – smashing windows. The present day story, however, was more prosaic – the guy managed to get arrested as he planned, albeit not on the first try. However, he wasn’t as inventive as the Soapy, the character in O. Henry story, who first decided to get arrested by having a fancy dinner and not pay for it. He’s unlucky in his quest though, as the restaurant owners are uncooperative and the policemen that he meets are somewhat lenient or stubbornly refuse to arrest him. Eventually, he does get his “three months on the Island” for the upcoming winter but not without a twist. Our real guy, before resorting to smashing Dunkin Donuts windows was ““going to strangers’ doors” asking if he could stay at their homes”, to no success. No, he obviously has not heard of this American classic.

Anyway, it’s a pleasure to read this story once again, here’s the link to the story.  The Cop and the Anthem. Some brilliant quote from the story:

In Soapy’s opinion the Law was more benign than Philanthropy. There was an endless round of institutions, municipal and eleemosynary, on which he might set out and receive lodging and food accordant with the simple life. But to one of Soapy’s proud spirit the gifts of charity are encumbered. If not in coin you must pay in humiliation of spirit for every benefit received at the hands of philanthropy. As Caesar had his Brutus, every bed of charity must have its toll of a bath, every loaf of bread its compensation of a private and personal inquisition. Wherefore it is better to be a guest of the law, which though conducted by rules, does not meddle unduly with a gentleman’s private affairs.