Some predictions for the near and not so near future

When you pay premiums for your insurance and if and when the time comes for you to get the benefits, imagine how pissed off you would be if, instead of getting the benefits, you would receive a lecture from your insurance company on the evil of handouts, generously peppered with folksy “American entrepreneurial spirit/pull yourself by your shoelaces” stories. That policyholder is the American unemployed and that insurance company is nowadays Republicans. Nowadays, because Republicans had no problem approving unemployment insurance for those lazy bastards when Bush was in office.
The public, notoriously attentive to details and known for their long attention span, will be able to see through the spin, of course, and reward Obama at the expense of the GOP. But not the way you think. Here’s how. This year, the Republicans will take the House, yes, that is my prediction. They will do so because Obama is in office and things are still pretty bad economically. Of course, when the GOP takes over the House they’ll show us, Commies, how things need to be done! Frankly, I can’t wait. Market loves gridlock in Congress, because this way no harm is coming the Wall Street way (apart from the freshly passed Financial Regulation Bill that has already been priced in). In anticipation of Republican takeover this fall the market will rally (that is my second prediction). For the next 2 years the GOP will demonstrate their problem solving skills with breakthrough and revolutionary ideas of tax cuts and less regulation. We will hear a lot of talking heads and read a lot of editorials about a repeat of 1994 GOP takeover of Congress with no mention of what happened in 1996. Which leads me to believe that Obama actually wants GOP to win this fall, so as to win against them in 2012. It’s a win-win situation for him. In 2 years, even if there’s no gridlock in Congress, the recession will be over through a natural cycle and what would stop him from claiming a well-deserved credit?
Oh, here’s Obama with balls. I’m considering it as one of my new blog avatars.


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