Well, we’re fucked. Now that I got it out of the way, I see three possible scenarios with regard to new SCOTUS and Roe vs Wade. One, unlikely, is that the new appointee will be a copy of Kennedy on social issues. It’s unlikely because Trump and those who will whisper SCOTUS candidates’ names to him take special pleasure in inflicting pain to liberals. They’ll make sure that what we get is going to be in the mold of Clarence Thomas, which is the second, more likely possibility. He (or she) could promptly vote to outright overturn Roe vs Wade (which will then throw the issue back to the states, many of which will immediately outlaw all abortions). But there’s a third possibility. John Roberts is not stupid. He realizes that overturning this particular decision would, aside from breaking the previous precedents (namely Planned Parenthood vs Casey), would also cement his legacy. Is this the kind of case he wants to be remembered for? Does he want to be responsible for creating a winning issue for Democrats to run on for decades? So what is more likely to happen is that the court will continue to chip at reproductive rights by imposing all kinds of restrictions on women, doctors and facilities – a proverbial slow boil. RvW will stand, but will be hollowed out. I think this last possibility is the most likely. Still, I would not underestimate Trump’s and pro-life forces’ desire to stick it to the libs. And in some twisted way, I say, bring it on. Remember the circumstances under which California turned solid blue? Proposition 187 – a ballot initiative that got passed, but then proved unconstitutional. True, Trump administration is incapable of considering second order (let alone third order) effects of their actions. But SCOTUS, and John Roberts in particular can. Are they prepared to have their name on mobilizing Democrats for a generation?
And final observation. Trump voters are drunk with power, they’re agitated with possibilities. They are high on expectations. Evangelicals had to put up with a lot, and dog whistles won’t do anymore. They want red meat. The effete, urban tax cut crowd (the larry kudlows, the ivankas, the peter thiels, you know the type) thought that with Trump they were getting buffet-style, pick-and-choose policies that are good for business. They thought that no one was really serious about all that abortion stuff. Well, not this time, fuckers. This time you getting a full menu. FULL FUCKING MENU.