When you pay premiums for your insurance and if and when the time comes for you to get the benefits, imagine how pissed off you would be if, instead of getting the benefits, you would receive a lecture from your insurance company on the evil of handouts, generously peppered with folksy “American entrepreneurial spirit/pull yourself by your shoelaces” stories. That policyholder is the American unemployed and that insurance company is nowadays Republicans. Nowadays, because Republicans had no problem approving unemployment insurance for those lazy bastards when Bush was in office.
The public, notoriously attentive to details and known for their long attention span, will be able to see through the spin, of course, and reward Obama at the expense of the GOP. But not the way you think. Here’s how. This year, the Republicans will take the House, yes, that is my prediction. They will do so because Obama is in office and things are still pretty bad economically. Of course, when the GOP takes over the House they’ll show us, Commies, how things need to be done! Frankly, I can’t wait. Market loves gridlock in Congress, because this way no harm is coming the Wall Street way (apart from the freshly passed Financial Regulation Bill that has already been priced in). In anticipation of Republican takeover this fall the market will rally (that is my second prediction). For the next 2 years the GOP will demonstrate their problem solving skills with breakthrough and revolutionary ideas of tax cuts and less regulation. We will hear a lot of talking heads and read a lot of editorials about a repeat of 1994 GOP takeover of Congress with no mention of what happened in 1996. Which leads me to believe that Obama actually wants GOP to win this fall, so as to win against them in 2012. It’s a win-win situation for him. In 2 years, even if there’s no gridlock in Congress, the recession will be over through a natural cycle and what would stop him from claiming a well-deserved credit?
Oh, here’s Obama with balls. I’m considering it as one of my new blog avatars.
Obama
Poker and Politics
My brain, already quite meager to begin with, is totally melting in this heat for the last few days, forbidding me to deliver you a new portion of my rabid opinion. As of this moment I’m seriously concerned for the life of the prophetic octopus in Germany. I’m afraid it goes well with the beer.
As I sat at the poker table in AC the other day and observed the action, I got reaffirmed in how much poker is like politics and vice versa. For example, there are many ways to win the pot – some of them opportunistic and some long-term strategic. Opportunistic is when you’re in the pot with weak hand and you sense weakness in others as well and you go ahead and steal it. The key here is not to think for too long and just do it. More often than not you will not get called, out of sheer momentum, and that’s all you need. The strategic way is much less fun than the opportunistic and it involves boring stuff like counting the odds and folding too many hands. Democrats have lost the momentum some time ago and, despite occasional opportunities presented by loose-lipped Republicans, they now have to resort to just grinding away at a slow pace. But even here they manage to miss a few pots. For example, the cost of pushing through the extension of unemployment insurance would be roughly $25bn addition to a $14 trillion debt which is much less than half a percent. The cost of NOT pushing this bill will most likely result in Republican takeover of the House and the Senate. To put it in a poker terms, if you already put $1400 in the pot you’d be a fool not to call another $25, even if you have 2-7 offsuit, because if you lose – you lose only $25, but if you win you might win big. Republicans blocked the extension on budget concerns, at least that’s the official line, but I’m positive it has something to do with the upcoming elections and they want people to suffer for some more so that they are ripe for the taking this November. At this point I don’t quite understand why Obama and Democrats don’t talk about it every day, why do they allow Republicans to take the initiative and portray the situation as “killing an ant with a nuke” and to beat themselves in the chest proclaiming newfound concern for the budget. Moreover, the “borrow and spend” was an ok way to finance various conservative causes under Bush, and it was presented as responsible governing vs. the liberals’ “tax and spend” ways.
Another big ominous sign for Democrats from the poker table: At one point I was playing with a bunch of colorful New Jersey union employees at the table, you know, the Teamsters, gold chains and all, talking non-stop about economy and thrashing Obama. Well, they also talked about how long it is until retirement and what to do to squeeze maximum benefits upon retirement, but nonetheless, I’m sure Democrats are not getting votes from these guys this fall. From the Teamsters, for Christ sake! I wasn’t sure they were aware that if it was up to Republicans they would see none of the benefits and would be paid $7 an hour, but who cares about the facts these days. What are Democrats smoking? Where’s the PR, where’s the offensive, where’s Chicago-style shakedown? Or do they want to lose this November so that they could pull “a Clinton” circa 1996 in 2012?
Anyway, the Teamsters were entertaining in many ways, especially in the way they played. One of them declared that he “wanted to be closer to the fish” before changing seats to a seat next to mine. I just joined the table and I don’t think I played a single hand yet, but I went out of my way to look like a freshly cut piece of toro. He proceeded to lose all his stack, not to me unfortunately. But this episode made me come up with an amendment to an old poker adage “If you don’t see a fish at the table, then you are one”: The human mind works in such a way that it’ll always find a fish at the table.
In Defense of Obama
I had lunch the other day with an old colleague of mine, and we talked politics among other things. At one point, many years ago as we were working for the same company, we had very similar, far left political views. Back then he introduced me to Noam Chomsky and Howard Zinn. Now he occasionally reads my blog and he told me that I became too right-wing. Almost – he paused looking for appropriate analogy – like David Brooks! (David Brooks is considered a conservative by New York Times standards). We laughed at this description of me, but then I thought, perhaps, there’s some truth to that. My colleague is disappointed with Obama because the troops are still in Iraq and Afghanistan. Frankly, I am disappointed at the Left for being disappointed with Obama. Disappointed liberals, I said, do not realize that this is the best they are going to get, this is the best person in a generation to represent their interests but they allow themselves to be whimsical rather than supportive. Do they honestly believe that an idealist like, say, Ralph Nader could ever be elected to represent them? I proceeded to explain to him why I think left wing idealism and rigidity is killing the movement and why it is necessary to have a practical approach to complex issues.
I know Obama understands it. He displays an enviable coolness of character, this ability to maintain composure and focus under the most severe pressure. I like that he does not have the propensity to rush to judgment and he doesn’t give us the presidential theatrics that the public demands, like public displays of emotion. He concentrates on task at hand while both Left and Right, like spoiled children, foaming at the mouth, demand that he does the impossible. How much more demanding we are of Obama is unbelievable. The bar that was set so low for Bush is raised to inhuman levels for Obama. Bush could kill a puppy on national TV and be applauded for doing it, Obama can don a batman costume, dive into the Gulf of Mexico and put his thumb into the leak and we’ll complain that he’s using the wrong thumb! I’m happy to see, however, that it bothers me more than it bothers him. I guess that over the course of his life he got used to idea that he must study more, work harder, be smarter and not complain about a thing just to be considered on par with the rest. That’s what makes him a perfect leader in times like these. I’m not saying he’s perfect, I’m saying that he’s the best we’ve got to steer the country through the crisis. He has the qualities to do that. Obama, see my previous post, knows the ways of the force.
As many of you know, and as obvious from the above I criticize both the liberals and conservatives. Because both have fringes and fringes are emotional. The more you get to the political center the less emotional and more practical you become. The truth is in the center, the Golden Mean, the Zen or whatever you want to call it. You can tell whether you’re in the center when if faced with a problem you say “What can be done about it now?” as opposed to “The world is coming to an end!” or “It’s so-and-so’s fault”. The Republicans scream that we’re all going to die, the Democrats screams “It’s Bush’s fault” and in the meantime Obama is trying to do something about it. The way things are going right now, however, being a centrist would mean that in addition to piloting a ship during the storm, Obama would have to step into the passenger cabin from time to time and to tell everyone to “Calm the Fuck Down!” Somewhat like this:
Goldman is Goldman, but Obama is Obama
I have a friend who, as we talked about the upcoming season of Bolshoi ballet at the Met a few years ago, said: “Kirov is Kirov but Bolshoi is Bolshoi!” The same can be applied to Goldman and Obama. Goldman maybe good, Goldman maybe the best there is. But for every wise ass out there there’s a left-hand screw. Obama might as well turn out to be Goldman’s screw. But not for the reasons you think. Allow me to elaborate.
Goldman was the biggest Obama donor when he was running for president. This fact is being brought up very often in the last few days. Now picture the typical reaction of a typical politician when such fact becomes known. First he denies it, then when that doesn’t work he tries to give money back, after which he proceeds to do the donor’s bidding anyway. What Obama did is breathtaking (in a good sense). He
a) Said, yeah, I got the money from Goldman;
b) And no, I’m not giving it back;
c) And I’m going after Goldman regardless. And on top of that I’m asking them to join me in my fight.
What balls! How refreshing! It’s becoming more and more evident to me that he and his team not only know what they’re doing, they have read and memorized all the right books. Democrats, who have gotten accustomed to take it on the chin, have learned not only to attack but mastered such a subtle mockery that I’m sure puts Lloyd Blankfein in silent rage stemming from sudden feeling of helplessness and lack of control over the situation – a new set of emotions for a man like him.
My suspicions about Obama’s team were confirmed the other day by another friend of mine, no stranger to strategic moves himself – a deft poker player, a champion bridge player and shrewd businessman. Between spits and curses (he’s no fan of Obama), he admitted that Sun Tzu and Nicholo M are the table books for Obama’s team. They play by the book, he said, and that’s what will bring them down, he added. I exercised that possibility in my head, but then I thought that, at a very minimum, they must have an opponent who plays by the book. So far the opposition plays checkers to Obama’s Grandmaster level chess. Honestly, I’d be delighted to see Republicans’ strategy expanding from willfully pretending not to understand what’s written in the bill. But it seems now that it’s the only thing that comes to their mind.
Obama flexes muscles again
I don’t recognize Obama. In just a matter of a few weeks he has turned from Peter Parker into a Spiderman. I’m not complaining though, I welcome the transformation. I was clamoring for the Left to grow balls for a long time after all. Before I delve into this recent development I wanted to specify a few things.
Pictures from last night
Pictures made by me.
The money quote from lat night:
“Sometimes Democrats can be their own worst enemies. Democrats are an opinionated bunch. You know the other side, they just kind of do what they’re told. Democrats, ya’ll thinkin’ for yourselves. I like that in you, but it’s time for us to make sure that we finish the job here, we are this close and we’ve got to be unified.”
Yes, the other side, when they get marching orders they start marching. And they calling us Commies?
Obama event tonight
I feel like bragging! I’m going to the Obama event tonight at Hammerstein Ballroom. Last time I was that excited was when I went to see Page/Plant back in 1998.
Current music: Moby Dick
Left with Balls 